The United States is projected to face a critical shortage of nearly 28,000 surgeons by 2038, with significant disparities in workforce distribution, particularly in rural areas, according to a comprehensive study set to be presented at the American College of Surgeons Clinical Congress 2026.
WASHINGTON (September 25, 2026) — A new nationwide study has projected that the United States will be short nearly 28,000 surgeons by the year 2038, with the surgical workforce expected to cover only 84.3% of the anticipated national need. This analysis, which represents the first unified assessment of the surgical workforce across multiple specialties, will be presented at the American College of Surgeons (ACS) Clinical Congress 2026, scheduled for September 26-29 in Washington D.C.
The study’s findings underscore a growing concern within the healthcare community regarding the supply of surgeons, particularly as the demand for surgical services is projected to increase significantly. Historically, discussions surrounding physician shortages have often centered around individual specialties; however, this study provides a comprehensive overview that reveals the broader implications of workforce shortages across the surgical field.
Assessing the Impending Shortages
Researchers utilized the Health Workforce Simulation Model (HWSM), developed by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, to analyze supply and demand dynamics across ten surgical specialties from 2023 to 2038. These specialties include ophthalmology, plastic surgery, vascular surgery, urology, orthopedics, otolaryngology, neurosurgery, thoracic surgery, general surgery, and colorectal surgery.
The study’s analysis indicates that the overall supply of surgeons is expected to decline by 4.2% during the assessment period, while demand for surgical services will increase by 12.8%. This disparity is anticipated to result in a national shortfall of approximately 27,940 surgeons. Specifically, the greatest shortages are projected in vascular surgery, which is expected to meet only 65.8% of demand, followed by ophthalmology (71.8%), thoracic surgery (73.1%), and plastic surgery (74.1%). Other specialties, such as urology, orthopedics, and neurosurgery, will face moderate shortages, while general surgery and colorectal surgery are projected to remain near equilibrium with 91.3% and 98.3% of need met, respectively.
Disparities in Access to Surgical Care
The implications of these shortages are particularly pronounced in rural areas, where access to surgical care is already limited. Patients in these regions may face longer wait times for procedures, potentially exacerbating health issues and leading to more severe outcomes. The researchers note that patients may be required to travel significant distances to receive care, which poses additional barriers for those living in underserved areas.
“Studies usually look at one specialty at a time, so a shortage looks like that specialty’s problem,” stated Fernando Ribeiro Duraes, BA, a medical student at Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine and lead author of the study. “When you put all ten specialties together, you can see supply is projected to fall while demand keeps rising, and that the gaps are worse in rural areas. The fixes have to be targeted by specialty and by geography, not incremental.”
Identifying Solutions to the Shortage
The findings from this study highlight the urgent need for targeted strategies to address anticipated shortages in the surgical workforce. Policymakers and healthcare leaders are urged to consider comprehensive workforce policies that go beyond incremental changes. Fernando Ribeiro Duraes emphasizes the importance of legislative measures such as H.R. 3890, the Resident Physician Shortage Reduction Act. This proposed legislation seeks to increase the number of residency positions available for aspiring surgeons, a figure that has not changed since 1997. Additionally, the bill aims to remove caps on federal loan borrowing and expand loan forgiveness programs for public service, which could incentivize physicians to practice in rural and underserved areas.
Eliana Ferreira Ribeiro Duraes, MD, PhD, MBA, a plastic surgeon at the Cleveland Clinic and co-author of the study, began this research by investigating shortages within her specialty, which led to a broader examination of the surgical workforce landscape. “I saw [Fernando Ribeiro Duraes] and his colleagues trying to figure out what specialty they wanted,” she explained, prompting the team to analyze future projections to better understand the expected landscape across various surgical specialties.
Collaborative Efforts and Future Directions
The study’s co-authors consist of a diverse group of medical professionals and researchers, reflecting a collaborative effort to address the anticipated crisis in the surgical workforce. These findings serve as a crucial reminder of the pressing need to reassess and adapt surgical training and workforce strategies in order to meet the evolving demands of healthcare in the United States.
As the healthcare landscape continues to evolve, the projected shortage of surgeons underscores the importance of proactive measures to ensure that the U.S. healthcare system can provide timely and efficient surgical care to all populations, particularly the most vulnerable. Addressing these workforce concerns requires a multifaceted approach, including increased training opportunities, supportive policies for medical education, and targeted recruitment efforts in underserved areas.
About the American College of Surgeons
The American College of Surgeons, founded in 1913, is a scientific and educational organization dedicated to raising the standards of surgical practice and improving the quality of care for surgical patients. With approximately 95,000 members, it is the largest organization of surgeons in the world, and it plays a pivotal role in advocating for the interests of all surgical patients.
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